· Analysis updated 00:33 UTC
Kongahälla vs Lindome Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Kongahälla and 1.43 for Lindome, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Lindome the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kongahälla home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lindome away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lindome to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 36% / 25% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Kongahälla and 1.43 for Lindome, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.7%
- 1–28.5%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–18.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 3.40 (model 43.3% vs market 26.9%, edge +16.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 3.40 | 26.9% | 43.3% | 2.31 | +16.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.55 | 60.3% | 61.3% | 1.63 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.30 | 38.5% | 38.7% | 2.58 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.3% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.8% | 74.7% | 1.34 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.45 | 36.2% | 36.0% | 2.78 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 64.9% | 64.0% | 1.56 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.25 | 73.1% | 56.7% | 1.76 | -16.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Kongahälla
- 2026-09-24T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Lindome · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hestrafor · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Astrio · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Landvetter IS · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Galtabacks · 1-3 (L)
Lindome
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Qviding FIF · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Böljan · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Galtabacks · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Kongahälla · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Torslanda · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-24T18:15:00.000Z · Kongahälla 3-2 Lindome (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
- 2026-06-05T17:00:00.000Z · Kongahälla 2-2 Lindome (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
Division 2 - Västra Götaland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landvetter IS | 26 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 60 |
| 2 | Dalstorps | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 52 |
| 3 | Jonsered | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 42 |
| 4 | Hestrafor | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 41 |
| 5 | Västra Frölunda | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Qviding FIF | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 40 |
| 7 | Böljan | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Lindome | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 37 |
| 9 | Torslanda | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | -1 | 34 |
| 10 | Onsala | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -4 | 33 |
| 11 | Kongahälla | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -9 | 30 |
| 12 | Åstorp | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | -9 | 29 |
| 13 | Galtabacks | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 23 |
| 14 | Astrio | 26 | 2 | 4 | 20 | -40 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.