Kongahälla vs Västra Frölunda Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Kongahälla and 1.83 for Västra Frölunda, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Västra Frölunda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Västra Frölunda win

55.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kongahälla home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Västra Frölunda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Västra Frölunda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 22% / 23% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Kongahälla and 1.83 for Västra Frölunda, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kongahälla win22%

Draw23%

Västra Frölunda win56%

Double chance 1X

45%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–110.8%
0–110.3%
1–29.9%
0–29.4%
1–36.0%

Recent form

Kongahälla

2026-09-24T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Lindome · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hestrafor · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Astrio · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Landvetter IS · 4-3 (W)
2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Galtabacks · 1-3 (L)

Västra Frölunda

2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Åstorp · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Galtabacks · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dalstorps · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Onsala · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lindome · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Division 2 - Västra Götaland table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Landvetter IS	26	19	3	4	25	60
2	Dalstorps	26	15	7	4	26	52
3	Jonsered	26	12	6	8	1	42
4	Hestrafor	26	12	5	9	6	41
5	Västra Frölunda	26	11	7	8	6	40
6	Qviding FIF	26	12	4	10	3	40
7	Böljan	26	10	7	9	4	37
8	Lindome	26	11	4	11	2	37
9	Torslanda	26	9	7	10	-1	34
10	Onsala	26	9	6	11	-4	33
11	Kongahälla	26	8	6	12	-9	30
12	Åstorp	26	8	5	13	-9	29
13	Galtabacks	26	6	5	15	-10	23
14	Astrio	26	2	4	20	-40	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Västra Frölunda win, at 55.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.