· Analysis updated 03:52 UTC
Kongsvinger II vs Fløya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Kongsvinger II and 2.72 for Fløya, a combined total of 4.75. That distribution gives Fløya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fløya win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 2.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kongsvinger II home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Fløya away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fløya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 29% / 18% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Kongsvinger II and 2.72 for Fløya, a combined 4.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.6%
- 1–26.5%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–35.9%
- 2–14.8%
Recent form
Kongsvinger II
- 2026-09-21T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Tromsø II · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Fløya · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Skjervøy · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulfstind · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Alta · 0-6 (L)
Fløya
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Finnsnes · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosenborg · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kongsvinger II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Skjetten · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Harstad · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · Kongsvinger II 1-5 Fløya (3. Division - Girone 5)
- 2026-05-14T13:00:00.000Z · Kongsvinger II 1-3 Fløya (3. Division - Girone 5)
- 2024-07-28T12:30:00.000Z · Kongsvinger II 1-2 Fløya (3. Division - Girone 6)
- 2024-06-02T14:00:00.000Z · Kongsvinger II 1-2 Fløya (3. Division - Girone 6)
3. Division - Girone 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skedsmo | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 56 |
| 2 | Fløya | 25 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 51 |
| 3 | Harstad | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 49 |
| 4 | Alta | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 45 |
| 5 | Finnsnes | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Skjetten | 25 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 36 |
| 7 | Kongsvinger II | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | -17 | 35 |
| 8 | Strømsgodset II | 25 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Lillestrøm II | 25 | 10 | 1 | 14 | 16 | 31 |
| 10 | Fauske Sprint | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | -25 | 31 |
| 11 | Tromsø II | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 30 |
| 12 | Skjervøy | 25 | 8 | 3 | 14 | -28 | 27 |
| 13 | Bossekop | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | -37 | 22 |
| 14 | Ulfstind | 25 | 4 | 3 | 18 | -53 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fløya win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.