· Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
Kongsvinger II vs Harstad Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.87 expected goals for Kongsvinger II and 2.38 for Harstad, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Harstad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Harstad win
49.7% probability
Expected goals
1.87 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kongsvinger II home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Harstad away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Harstad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 31% / 20% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.87 goals for Kongsvinger II and 2.38 for Harstad, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–16.3%
- 1–36.0%
- 2–15.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.22 | 75.7% | 76.7% | 1.30 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 68.5% | 69.2% | 1.45 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.60 | 19.4% | 19.5% | 5.13 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.80 | 49.6% | 49.7% | 2.01 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.85 | 50.4% | 50.3% | 1.99 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.88 | 31.0% | 30.8% | 3.25 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 81.1% | 80.5% | 1.24 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | No | 3.80 | 24.3% | 23.3% | 4.29 | -1.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Kongsvinger II
- 2026-09-21T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Tromsø II · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Fløya · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Skjervøy · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulfstind · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Alta · 0-6 (L)
Harstad
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kongsvinger II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Skjetten · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulfstind · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tromsø II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fløya · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skedsmo | 23 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 50 |
| 2 | Fløya | 23 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 45 |
| 3 | Alta | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 45 |
| 4 | Harstad | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 36 | 43 |
| 5 | Finnsnes | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 37 |
| 6 | Skjetten | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 33 |
| 7 | Kongsvinger II | 23 | 10 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 32 |
| 8 | Fauske Sprint | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | -15 | 31 |
| 9 | Lillestrøm II | 23 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 28 |
| 10 | Tromsø II | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 27 |
| 11 | Strømsgodset II | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | -3 | 27 |
| 12 | Skjervøy | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | -21 | 27 |
| 13 | Bossekop | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -42 | 19 |
| 14 | Ulfstind | 23 | 4 | 3 | 16 | -43 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Harstad win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.