· Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
Kongsvinger II vs Strømsgodset II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.29 expected goals for Kongsvinger II and 2.33 for Strømsgodset II, a combined total of 4.62. That distribution gives Strømsgodset II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
60.2% probability
Expected goals
2.29 – 2.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kongsvinger II home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Strømsgodset II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Strømsgodset II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 40% / 19% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.29 goals for Kongsvinger II and 2.33 for Strømsgodset II, a combined 4.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.1%
- 2–16.0%
- 2–35.4%
- 3–25.4%
Recent form
Kongsvinger II
- 2026-09-21T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Tromsø II · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Fløya · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Skjervøy · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulfstind · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Alta · 0-6 (L)
Strømsgodset II
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alta · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Fauske Sprint · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Finnsnes · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bossekop · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Skedsmo · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skedsmo | 23 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 50 |
| 2 | Fløya | 23 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 45 |
| 3 | Alta | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 45 |
| 4 | Harstad | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 36 | 43 |
| 5 | Finnsnes | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 37 |
| 6 | Skjetten | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 33 |
| 7 | Kongsvinger II | 23 | 10 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 32 |
| 8 | Fauske Sprint | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | -15 | 31 |
| 9 | Lillestrøm II | 23 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 28 |
| 10 | Tromsø II | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 27 |
| 11 | Strømsgodset II | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | -3 | 27 |
| 12 | Skjervøy | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | -21 | 27 |
| 13 | Bossekop | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -42 | 19 |
| 14 | Ulfstind | 23 | 4 | 3 | 16 | -43 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.