Koninklijke HFC vs AFC Amsterdam Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Koninklijke HFC and 1.73 for AFC Amsterdam, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Koninklijke HFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Koninklijke HFC home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AFC Amsterdam away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Koninklijke HFC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 22% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Koninklijke HFC and 1.73 for AFC Amsterdam, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Koninklijke HFC win42%

Draw22%

AFC Amsterdam win37%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–18.9%
2–18.3%
1–27.7%
2–27.1%
1–05.2%

Recent form

Koninklijke HFC

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ijsselmeervogels · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Quick Boys · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozakken Boys · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dovo · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs AFC Amsterdam · 1-3 (L)

AFC Amsterdam

2026-08-22T12:30:00.000Z · A vs GVVV Veenendaal · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-15T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Kloetinge · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · H vs HHC · 2-3 (L)
2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · A vs GVVV Veenendaal · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-09T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior Maassluis · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tweede Divisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Quick Boys	10	8	1	1	22	25
2	De Treffers	10	6	3	1	16	21
3	Kozakken Boys	10	6	3	1	13	21
4	Ijsselmeervogels	10	6	1	3	5	19
5	HHC	10	5	3	2	4	18
6	Barendrecht	10	5	2	3	2	17
7	GVVV Veenendaal	10	5	0	5	2	15
8	RKAV Volendam	10	4	3	3	0	15
9	Spakenburg	10	4	2	4	-3	14
10	AFC Amsterdam	10	4	1	5	-3	13
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	10	4	1	5	-9	13
12	Sparta Rotterdam II	10	3	3	4	4	12
13	Katwijk	10	3	2	5	-9	11
14	Almere City II	10	3	1	6	0	10
15	Hoek	10	2	4	4	-4	10
16	Koninklijke HFC	10	2	3	5	-6	9
17	Kloetinge	10	1	4	5	-11	7
18	ROHDA Raalte	10	0	1	9	-23	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.