Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut · Analysis updated 09:08 UTC
Köniz vs Chênois Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Köniz and 1.48 for Chênois, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Chênois the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chênois win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Köniz home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chênois away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chênois to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 24% / 26% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Köniz and 1.48 for Chênois, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.4%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–09.1%
Recent form
Köniz
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Münsingen · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-05-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lausanne Sport II · 1-10 (L)
- 2025-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Naters · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Meyrin · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chênois · 2-3 (L)
Chênois
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Sion II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lancy · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Prishtina Bern · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Azzurri · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Meyrin · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · Köniz 2-3 Chênois (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
- 2024-10-26T15:00:00.000Z · Köniz 0-4 Chênois (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
1. Liga Classic - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azzurri | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | Prishtina Bern | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 23 |
| 3 | Servette II | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Lausanne Sport II | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Sion II | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Portalban / Gletterens | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Monthey | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Naters | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 9 | Lancy | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Chênois | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Echallens | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Meyrin | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 | Stade Payerne | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | La Chaux-de-Fonds | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -17 | 10 |
| 15 | Coffrane | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Vevey Sports | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -13 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chênois win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.