Konkola Stadium · Analysis updated 18:32 UTC
Konkola Blades vs Mufulira Wanderers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Konkola Blades and 0.76 for Mufulira Wanderers, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Konkola Blades the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Konkola Blades win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Konkola Blades home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mufulira Wanderers away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Konkola Blades to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 28% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Konkola Blades and 0.76 for Mufulira Wanderers, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.2%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–011.7%
- 2–011.3%
- 0–18.8%
Recent form
Konkola Blades
- 2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nchanga Rangers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs NAPSA Stars · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mines · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Power Dynamos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Red Arrows · 1-1 (D)
Mufulira Wanderers
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs ZESCO United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Red Arrows · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Green Eagles · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Power Dynamos · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Red Arrows · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zanaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ZESCO United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Nchanga Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Green Buffaloes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Nkana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Kabwe Warriors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Power Dynamos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Red Arrows | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Konkola Blades | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Roan United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | NAPSA Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Green Eagles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Man Utd Zambia Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Nkwazi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Kansanshi Dynamos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Mufulira Wanderers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Trident | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Mutondo Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Makeni All Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Chirundu Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Konkola Blades win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.