Konnerud vs Bærum Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Konnerud and 2.98 for Bærum, a combined total of 4.63. That distribution gives Bærum the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bærum win

64.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.65 – 2.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Konnerud home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bærum away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bærum to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 19% / 16% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Konnerud and 2.98 for Bærum, a combined 4.63 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Konnerud win19%

Draw16%

Bærum win65%

Double chance 1X

36%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals84%

Over 3.5 goals68%

Both teams to score76%

Correct score

1–27.2%
1–37.1%
2–25.9%
2–35.9%
1–45.3%

Recent form

Konnerud

2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Oslo · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Heming · 5-5 (D)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs KFUM II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Frigg · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SF Grei · 3-2 (W)

Bærum

2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Oslo · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordstrand · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Konnerud · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjondalen · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SF Grei · 7-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Asker	24	21	1	2	49	64
2	Heming	24	14	5	5	24	47
3	Gamle Oslo	24	14	2	8	27	44
4	Vålerenga II	24	13	1	10	-9	40
5	IF Ready	24	11	6	7	14	39
6	Bærum	24	12	2	10	20	38
7	Union Carl Berner	24	12	2	10	8	38
8	Frigg	24	9	6	9	-5	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	24	9	2	13	-22	29
10	KFUM II	24	8	4	12	-13	28
11	SF Grei	24	8	1	15	-29	25
12	Ullern	24	7	2	15	-19	23
13	Nordstrand	24	6	2	16	-18	20
14	Konnerud	24	5	2	17	-27	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bærum win, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.