· Analysis updated 06:29 UTC
Konnerud vs Ullern Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Konnerud and 2.02 for Ullern, a combined total of 4.16. That distribution gives Konnerud the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.4% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 2.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Konnerud home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ullern away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Konnerud to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 20% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Konnerud and 2.02 for Ullern, a combined 4.16 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.3%
- 2–17.2%
- 1–26.8%
- 1–16.7%
- 3–25.2%
Recent form
Konnerud
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Oslo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Heming · 5-5 (D)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs KFUM II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Frigg · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SF Grei · 3-2 (W)
Ullern
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SF Grei · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs KFUM II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Heming · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vålerenga II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Ready · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asker | 24 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 49 | 64 |
| 2 | Heming | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 47 |
| 3 | Gamle Oslo | 24 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 27 | 44 |
| 4 | Vålerenga II | 24 | 13 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 40 |
| 5 | IF Ready | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 39 |
| 6 | Bærum | 24 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 38 |
| 7 | Union Carl Berner | 24 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 38 |
| 8 | Frigg | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 33 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv Oslo | 24 | 9 | 2 | 13 | -22 | 29 |
| 10 | KFUM II | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | -13 | 28 |
| 11 | SF Grei | 24 | 8 | 1 | 15 | -29 | 25 |
| 12 | Ullern | 24 | 7 | 2 | 15 | -19 | 23 |
| 13 | Nordstrand | 24 | 6 | 2 | 16 | -18 | 20 |
| 14 | Konnerud | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | -27 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.