Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium · Referee B. Kolak · Analysis updated 15:06 UTC
Konyaspor vs Başakşehir Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.13 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Konyaspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Konyaspor win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Konyaspor home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Başakşehir away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–08.7%
- 1–26.1%
Recent form
Konyaspor
- 2026-09-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestine · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kasımpaşa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Trabzonspor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzurumspor FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kocaelispor · 1-2 (L)
Başakşehir
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Konyaspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Amed · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Kasımpaşa · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-27T17:00:00.000Z · Konyaspor 0-2 Başakşehir (Süper Lig)
- 2025-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Konyaspor 2-1 Başakşehir (Süper Lig)
- 2025-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · Konyaspor 0-1 Başakşehir (Süper Lig)
- 2024-11-03T10:30:00.000Z · Konyaspor 3-2 Başakşehir (Süper Lig)
- 2024-01-28T10:30:00.000Z · Konyaspor 2-3 Başakşehir (Süper Lig)
- 2023-09-02T16:15:00.000Z · Konyaspor 1-0 Başakşehir (Süper Lig)
- 2023-01-29T16:00:00.000Z · Konyaspor 0-2 Başakşehir (Süper Lig)
- 2022-08-15T16:15:00.000Z · Konyaspor 0-0 Başakşehir (Süper Lig)
- 2022-07-15T15:00:00.000Z · Konyaspor 0-1 Başakşehir (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-02-22T17:00:00.000Z · Konyaspor 1-2 Başakşehir (Süper Lig)
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 2 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Amed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Fenerbahçe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 |
| 5 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 13 |
| 6 | Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Çorum FK | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Rizespor | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Gaziantep FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Erzurumspor FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Göztepe | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Konyaspor win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.