Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium · Analysis updated 03:53 UTC
Konyaspor vs Galatasaray Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.73 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Galatasaray the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Galatasaray win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Konyaspor home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Galatasaray away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Galatasaray to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 28% / 24% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Konyaspor and 1.73 for Galatasaray, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–17.0%
Recent form
Konyaspor
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amed · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Başakşehir · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestine · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kasımpaşa · 0-0 (D)
Galatasaray
- 2026-10-21T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kasımpaşa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Pendikspor · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amed | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Göztepe | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Konyaspor | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Gaziantep FK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Galatasaray win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.