Medas Konya Büyüksehir Belediyesi Stadium · Referee Resat Onur Coskunses, Türkiye · Analysis updated 07:00 UTC
Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.70 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Trabzonspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Trabzonspor win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Konyaspor home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trabzonspor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.0%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.1%
Recent form
Konyaspor
- 2026-09-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestine · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kasımpaşa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Trabzonspor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzurumspor FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kocaelispor · 1-2 (L)
Trabzonspor
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Beşiktaş · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs KuPS · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Samsunspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Drogheda United · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · Konyaspor 1-0 Trabzonspor (Süper Lig)
- 2026-05-22T17:45:00.000Z · Konyaspor 1-2 Trabzonspor (Türkiye Kupası)
- 2026-04-27T17:00:00.000Z · Konyaspor 2-1 Trabzonspor (Süper Lig)
- 2025-11-29T17:00:00.000Z · Konyaspor 1-3 Trabzonspor (Süper Lig)
- 2025-03-03T13:00:00.000Z · Konyaspor 1-0 Trabzonspor (Süper Lig)
- 2024-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · Konyaspor 2-3 Trabzonspor (Süper Lig)
- 2024-04-03T17:30:00.000Z · Konyaspor 1-3 Trabzonspor (Süper Lig)
- 2023-11-10T17:00:00.000Z · Konyaspor 1-2 Trabzonspor (Süper Lig)
- 2023-04-29T13:00:00.000Z · Konyaspor 2-1 Trabzonspor (Süper Lig)
- 2022-11-06T17:00:00.000Z · Konyaspor 2-2 Trabzonspor (Süper Lig)
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amed | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Göztepe | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Gaziantep FK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Trabzonspor win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.