· Analysis updated 15:59 UTC
Köpetdag Aşgabat vs Altyn Asyr Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Köpetdag Aşgabat and 1.92 for Altyn Asyr, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Altyn Asyr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Altyn Asyr win
57.8% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Köpetdag Aşgabat home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Altyn Asyr away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.8%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–36.4%
Recent form
Köpetdag Aşgabat
- 2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Arkadag · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Merw · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Aşgabat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nebitci · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Şagadam · 2-3 (L)
Altyn Asyr
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Aşgabat · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ahal · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nebitci · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Şagadam · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arkadag · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T12:30:00.000Z · Köpetdag Aşgabat 1-2 Altyn Asyr (Ýokary Liga)
- 2026-05-20T12:30:00.000Z · Köpetdag Aşgabat 5-2 Altyn Asyr (Ýokary Liga)
- 2026-04-11T12:00:00.000Z · Köpetdag Aşgabat 0-3 Altyn Asyr (Ýokary Liga)
- 2025-11-30T10:00:00.000Z · Köpetdag Aşgabat 1-5 Altyn Asyr (Ýokary Liga)
- 2025-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · Köpetdag Aşgabat 1-5 Altyn Asyr (Ýokary Liga)
- 2025-05-31T12:45:00.000Z · Köpetdag Aşgabat 1-3 Altyn Asyr (Ýokary Liga)
- 2025-04-03T11:00:00.000Z · Köpetdag Aşgabat 0-3 Altyn Asyr (Ýokary Liga)
- 2024-12-27T12:00:00.000Z · Köpetdag Aşgabat 0-4 Altyn Asyr (Ýokary Liga)
- 2024-09-23T11:30:00.000Z · Köpetdag Aşgabat 0-3 Altyn Asyr (Ýokary Liga)
- 2024-05-18T12:00:00.000Z · Köpetdag Aşgabat 0-1 Altyn Asyr (Ýokary Liga)
Ýokary Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkadag | 24 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 72 |
| 2 | Altyn Asyr | 21 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 47 |
| 3 | Ahal | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 42 |
| 4 | Şagadam | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -16 | 22 |
| 5 | Nebitci | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -18 | 22 |
| 6 | Merw | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -36 | 18 |
| 7 | Aşgabat | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 15 |
| 8 | Köpetdag Aşgabat | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -30 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Altyn Asyr win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.