· Analysis updated 08:27 UTC
Köpetdag Aşgabat vs Arkadag Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.52 expected goals for Köpetdag Aşgabat and 4.37 for Arkadag, a combined total of 4.89. That distribution gives Arkadag the largest share of the 1X2 market at 95%, with the draw at 4%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–4 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 95% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arkadag win
94.8% probability
Expected goals
0.52 – 4.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Köpetdag Aşgabat home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arkadag to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 95%, against 1% / 4% / 95% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.52 goals for Köpetdag Aşgabat and 4.37 for Arkadag, a combined 4.89 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 39%, with 0–4 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
5%
Double chance 12
96%
Double chance X2
99%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–411.4%
- 0–310.4%
- 0–59.9%
- 0–67.2%
- 0–27.2%
Recent form
Köpetdag Aşgabat
- 2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Arkadag · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Merw · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Aşgabat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nebitci · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Şagadam · 2-3 (L)
Arkadag
- 2026-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aşgabat · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Altyn Asyr · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-16T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Ahal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Goa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Merw · 7-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ýokary Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkadag | 24 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 72 |
| 2 | Altyn Asyr | 21 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 47 |
| 3 | Ahal | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 42 |
| 4 | Şagadam | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -16 | 22 |
| 5 | Nebitci | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -18 | 22 |
| 6 | Merw | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -36 | 18 |
| 7 | Aşgabat | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 15 |
| 8 | Köpetdag Aşgabat | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -30 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arkadag win, at 94.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–4.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 95% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.