· Analysis updated 07:32 UTC
Korabi Peshkopi vs Apolonia Fier Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Korabi Peshkopi and 0.87 for Apolonia Fier, a combined total of 1.92. That distribution gives Korabi Peshkopi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.3% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Korabi Peshkopi home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Apolonia Fier away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.3%
- 0–014.6%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.8%
- 2–08.0%
Recent form
Korabi Peshkopi
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Besa Kavajë · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bylis · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Pogradeci · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Tërbuni Pukë · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vora · 0-2 (L)
Apolonia Fier
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Maliqi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Burreli · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Besa Kavajë · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Korabi Peshkopi · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T13:00:00.000Z · Korabi Peshkopi 0-0 Apolonia Fier (1st Division)
- 2025-12-13T12:30:00.000Z · Korabi Peshkopi 3-0 Apolonia Fier (1st Division)
- 2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Korabi Peshkopi 0-0 Apolonia Fier (1st Division)
- 2025-03-30T12:00:00.000Z · Korabi Peshkopi 0-3 Apolonia Fier (1st Division)
- 2025-01-25T12:30:00.000Z · Korabi Peshkopi 2-4 Apolonia Fier (1st Division)
- 2024-10-26T12:00:00.000Z · Korabi Peshkopi 0-3 Apolonia Fier (1st Division)
- 2024-03-17T13:00:00.000Z · Korabi Peshkopi 1-1 Apolonia Fier (1st Division)
- 2023-11-26T12:30:00.000Z · Korabi Peshkopi 2-2 Apolonia Fier (1st Division)
- 2023-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Korabi Peshkopi 0-1 Apolonia Fier (1st Division)
- 2023-02-06T12:00:00.000Z · Korabi Peshkopi 1-1 Apolonia Fier (1st Division)
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Besa Kavajë | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Pogradeci | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Flamurtari | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | FK Kukesi | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Bylis | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Kastrioti Krujë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Korabi Peshkopi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Sopoti Librazhd | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Burreli | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Oriku | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.