· Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Korabi Peshkopi vs Oriku Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Korabi Peshkopi and 0.72 for Oriku, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Korabi Peshkopi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Korabi Peshkopi win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Korabi Peshkopi home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Oriku away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Korabi Peshkopi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 27% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Korabi Peshkopi and 0.72 for Oriku, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.7%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–011.9%
- 0–011.7%
- 2–18.6%
Recent form
Korabi Peshkopi
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Besa Kavajë · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bylis · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Pogradeci · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Tërbuni Pukë · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vora · 0-2 (L)
Oriku
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Sopoti Librazhd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamurtari · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Kastrioti Krujë · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Butrinti Sarandë · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Burreli · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Besa Kavajë | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Pogradeci | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Flamurtari | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | FK Kukesi | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Bylis | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Kastrioti Krujë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Korabi Peshkopi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Sopoti Librazhd | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Burreli | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Oriku | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Korabi Peshkopi win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.