Thammasat Stadium · Analysis updated 08:41 UTC
Korea DPR U20 W vs Korea Republic U20 W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.54 expected goals for Korea DPR U20 W and 0.72 for Korea Republic U20 W, a combined total of 4.26. That distribution gives Korea DPR U20 W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 88%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 88% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Korea DPR U20 W win
87.8% probability
Expected goals
3.54 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Korea DPR U20 W home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Korea Republic U20 W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Korea DPR U20 W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 88%, against 88% / 8% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.54 goals for Korea DPR U20 W and 0.72 for Korea Republic U20 W, a combined 4.26 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
12%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–010.4%
- 4–09.2%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–17.5%
- 4–16.7%
Recent form
Korea DPR U20 W
- 2026-04-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Japan U20 W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-15T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Korea Republic U20 W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Australia U20 W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Korea Republic U20 W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Uzbekistan U20 W · 6-0 (W)
Korea Republic U20 W
- 2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghana U20 W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs France U20 W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Finland U23 W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Brazil U20 W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-15T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Korea DPR U20 W · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Korea DPR U20 W win, at 87.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 88% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.