· Referee M. Arruela · Analysis updated 07:00 UTC
Korea DPR U20 W vs Portugal U20 W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Korea DPR U20 W and 0.97 for Portugal U20 W, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Korea DPR U20 W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Korea DPR U20 W win
61.9% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Korea DPR U20 W home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Portugal U20 W away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Korea DPR U20 W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 21% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Korea DPR U20 W and 0.97 for Portugal U20 W, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.3%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.8%
- 3–06.9%
Recent form
Korea DPR U20 W
- 2026-04-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Japan U20 W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-15T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Korea Republic U20 W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Australia U20 W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Korea Republic U20 W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Uzbekistan U20 W · 6-0 (W)
Portugal U20 W
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Spain U20 W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Costa Rica U20 W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Colombia U20 W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Korea DPR U20 W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Italy U20 W · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
World Cup - U20 - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poland U20 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Argentina U20 W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Mexico U20 W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | Benin U20 W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -11 | 1 |
| 1 | Brazil U20 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Canada U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | England U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Tanzania U20 W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -13 | 0 |
| 1 | France U20 W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Korea Republic U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Ecuador U20 W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Ghana U20 W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 1 | Italy U20 W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Japan U20 W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | United States U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| 4 | New Zealand U20 W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -13 | 0 |
| 1 | Korea DPR U20 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | Portugal U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Colombia U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Costa Rica U20 W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
| 1 | Spain U20 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 9 |
| 2 | Nigeria U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| 3 | China PR U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | New Caledonia U20 W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -25 | 0 |
| 1 | United States U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| 2 | England U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | China PR U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Colombia U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 5 | Ecuador U20 W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Mexico U20 W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Korea DPR U20 W win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.