Shizuoka Stadium Ecopa · Referee Veronika Bernatskaia · Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Korea DPR W vs China W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.27 expected goals for Korea DPR W and 1.60 for China W, a combined total of 4.86. That distribution gives Korea DPR W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Korea DPR W win
69.9% probability
Expected goals
3.27 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Korea DPR W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Korea DPR W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 14% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.27 goals for Korea DPR W and 1.60 for China W, a combined 4.86 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 86% and both teams to score at 76%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.2%
- 2–16.6%
- 4–15.9%
- 3–25.7%
- 2–25.3%
Recent form
Korea DPR W
- 2026-09-29T06:00:00.000Z · H vs China W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Chinese Taipei W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T07:00:00.000Z · A vs South Korea W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Myanmar W · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangladesh W · 10-0 (W)
China W
- 2026-10-02T06:00:00.000Z · H vs South Korea W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Korea DPR W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Philippines W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Uzbekistan W · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Asian Games Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Japan W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 9 |
| 2 | Chinese Taipei W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 6 |
| 3 | Vietnam W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9 | 1 |
| 4 | Thailand W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9 | 1 |
| 1 | Korea DPR W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 7 |
| 2 | South Korea W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 7 |
| 3 | Myanmar W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -13 | 1 |
| 4 | Bangladesh W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -16 | 1 |
| 1 | China W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 2 | Uzbekistan W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Philippines W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Hong Kong W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 1 | Philippines W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 2 | Vietnam W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9 | 1 |
| 3 | Myanmar W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Korea DPR W win, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.