· Analysis updated 20:26 UTC
Kormákur / Hvöt vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.12 expected goals for Kormákur / Hvöt and 1.48 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir, a combined total of 3.61. That distribution gives Kormákur / Hvöt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kormákur / Hvöt win
52.3% probability
Expected goals
2.12 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kormákur / Hvöt home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.4%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Kormákur / Hvöt
- 2026-09-15T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Haukar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fjolnir · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hvíti riddarinn · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs KFG · 0-4 (L)
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vikingur Olafsiik · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dalvík / Reynir · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kormákur / Hvöt · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hvíti riddarinn · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fjolnir · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · Kormákur / Hvöt 2-3 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (2. Deild)
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · Kormákur / Hvöt 2-1 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (Fotbolti.net Cup A)
- 2026-06-20T14:00:00.000Z · Kormákur / Hvöt 2-2 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (2. Deild)
- 2025-07-19T17:00:00.000Z · Kormákur / Hvöt 5-1 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (2. Deild)
- 2025-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · Kormákur / Hvöt 1-8 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (2. Deild)
- 2024-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · Kormákur / Hvöt 1-3 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (2. Deild)
- 2024-07-07T16:00:00.000Z · Kormákur / Hvöt 0-3 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (2. Deild)
Fotbolti.net Cup A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selfoss | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 |
| 2 | Kormákur / Hvöt | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Haukar | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Álftanes | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 5 | Reynir | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 6 | Fjardabyggd / Leiknir | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 7 | Dalvík / Reynir | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 8 | Ýmir | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kormákur / Hvöt win, at 52.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.