Blonduosvollur · Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
Kormákur / Hvöt vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Kormákur / Hvöt and 1.78 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Kormákur / Hvöt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kormákur / Hvöt win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kormákur / Hvöt home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–16.8%
- 3–16.2%
- 1–26.1%
Recent form
Kormákur / Hvöt
- 2026-09-15T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Haukar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fjolnir · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hvíti riddarinn · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs KFG · 0-4 (L)
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vikingur Olafsiik · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dalvík / Reynir · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kormákur / Hvöt · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hvíti riddarinn · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fjolnir · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · Kormákur / Hvöt 2-3 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (2. Deild)
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · Kormákur / Hvöt 2-1 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (Fotbolti.net Cup A)
- 2026-06-20T14:00:00.000Z · Kormákur / Hvöt 2-2 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (2. Deild)
- 2025-07-19T17:00:00.000Z · Kormákur / Hvöt 5-1 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (2. Deild)
- 2025-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · Kormákur / Hvöt 1-8 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (2. Deild)
- 2024-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · Kormákur / Hvöt 1-3 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (2. Deild)
- 2024-07-07T16:00:00.000Z · Kormákur / Hvöt 0-3 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (2. Deild)
2. Deild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haukar | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 47 |
| 2 | Selfoss | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 45 |
| 3 | Kári | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 27 | 42 |
| 4 | Dalvík / Reynir | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 31 |
| 5 | Vikingur Olafsiik | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | -8 | 31 |
| 6 | Fjolnir | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 30 |
| 7 | Fjardabyggd / Leiknir | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 29 |
| 8 | Kormákur / Hvöt | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 27 |
| 9 | Magni | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 25 |
| 10 | Thróttur Vogar | 22 | 7 | 2 | 13 | -9 | 23 |
| 11 | KFG | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | -20 | 22 |
| 12 | Hvíti riddarinn | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -26 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kormákur / Hvöt win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.