· Analysis updated 15:24 UTC
Kornburg vs Cham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Kornburg and 1.35 for Cham, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Cham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.7% probability
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kornburg home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cham away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 30% / 27% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.09 goals for Kornburg and 1.35 for Cham, a combined 2.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–08.7%
- 1–28.6%
Recent form
Kornburg
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger FV · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jahn Regensburg II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gebenbach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stadeln · 1-1 (D)
Cham
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Bamberg · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Neudrossenfeld · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ingolstadt II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordlingen · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger FV · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Bayern Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cham | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 37 |
| 2 | Würzburger FV | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 3 | Gebenbach | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 26 |
| 4 | Eintracht Bamberg | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 25 |
| 5 | Kornburg | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 24 |
| 6 | Bayern Hof | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | Jahn Regensburg II | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 23 |
| 8 | Fortuna Regensburg | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 21 |
| 9 | Viktoria Aschaffenburg | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
| 10 | Stadeln | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 20 |
| 11 | Neudrossenfeld | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -2 | 19 |
| 12 | Ammerthal | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 |
| 13 | Ingolstadt II | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 13 |
| 14 | Weiden | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -9 | 13 |
| 15 | Großbardorf | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -10 | 13 |
| 16 | DJK Bamberg | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -15 | 11 |
| 17 | Nordlingen | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -17 | 10 |
| 18 | ASV Neumarkt | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.