· Analysis updated 13:58 UTC
Kornburg vs DJK Bamberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for Kornburg and 0.81 for DJK Bamberg, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives Kornburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Kornburg win
73.2% probability
Expected goals
2.43 – 0.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kornburg home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
DJK Bamberg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kornburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 16% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.43 goals for Kornburg and 0.81 for DJK Bamberg, a combined 3.24 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.6%
- 1–09.5%
- 3–09.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–17.7%
Recent form
Kornburg
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger FV · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jahn Regensburg II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gebenbach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stadeln · 1-1 (D)
DJK Bamberg
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Cham · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Bamberg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Neudrossenfeld · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ingolstadt II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordlingen · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Bayern Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cham | 16 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 43 |
| 2 | Würzburger FV | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 31 |
| 3 | Bayern Hof | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | Eintracht Bamberg | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 28 |
| 5 | Kornburg | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 27 |
| 6 | Gebenbach | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | Jahn Regensburg II | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 26 |
| 8 | Viktoria Aschaffenburg | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 23 |
| 9 | Fortuna Regensburg | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 22 |
| 10 | Stadeln | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 21 |
| 11 | Neudrossenfeld | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | -5 | 19 |
| 12 | Großbardorf | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 19 |
| 13 | Weiden | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -8 | 17 |
| 14 | Ammerthal | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -14 | 15 |
| 15 | DJK Bamberg | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -14 | 14 |
| 16 | Nordlingen | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -16 | 14 |
| 17 | Ingolstadt II | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 | ASV Neumarkt | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | -23 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kornburg win, at 73.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.