Kornburg vs Ingolstadt II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.55 expected goals for Kornburg and 0.96 for Ingolstadt II, a combined total of 3.51. That distribution gives Kornburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kornburg win

71.8% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.55 – 0.96

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kornburg home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ingolstadt II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kornburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 16% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.55 goals for Kornburg and 0.96 for Ingolstadt II, a combined 3.51 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kornburg win72%

Draw16%

Ingolstadt II win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

28%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

2–09.7%
2–19.3%
3–08.3%
3–17.9%
1–07.6%

Recent form

Kornburg

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger FV · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jahn Regensburg II · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gebenbach · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stadeln · 1-1 (D)

Ingolstadt II

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiden · 3-4 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern Hof · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kornburg · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs ASV Neumarkt · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ammerthal · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Bayern Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cham	16	14	1	1	29	43
2	Würzburger FV	16	9	4	3	13	31
3	Bayern Hof	16	8	5	3	11	29
4	Eintracht Bamberg	15	8	4	3	13	28
5	Kornburg	15	7	6	2	14	27
6	Gebenbach	16	8	3	5	1	27
7	Jahn Regensburg II	16	7	5	4	10	26
8	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	16	6	5	5	6	23
9	Fortuna Regensburg	16	6	4	6	8	22
10	Stadeln	16	5	6	5	-7	21
11	Neudrossenfeld	16	6	1	9	-5	19
12	Großbardorf	16	6	1	9	-7	19
13	Weiden	16	4	5	7	-8	17
14	Ammerthal	16	4	3	9	-14	15
15	DJK Bamberg	16	3	5	8	-14	14
16	Nordlingen	16	3	5	8	-16	14
17	Ingolstadt II	16	3	4	9	-11	13
18	ASV Neumarkt	16	1	3	12	-23	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kornburg win, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.