Korona Kielce II vs Busko-Zdroj Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Korona Kielce II and 2.25 for Busko-Zdroj, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Busko-Zdroj the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Busko-Zdroj win

47.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 2.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Korona Kielce II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Busko-Zdroj away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Busko-Zdroj to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 33% / 20% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Korona Kielce II and 2.25 for Busko-Zdroj, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Korona Kielce II win33%

Draw20%

Busko-Zdroj win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals59%

Both teams to score76%

Correct score

1–27.7%
2–27.2%
1–16.8%
2–16.4%
1–35.8%

Recent form

Korona Kielce II

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisłoka Dębica · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokół Kolb. · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jarosław · 2-6 (L)

Busko-Zdroj

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hetman Zamosc · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KSZO 1929 · 0-5 (L)
2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Kraków II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Naprzód · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Moravia Morawica · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · Korona Kielce II 4-1 Busko-Zdroj (III Liga - Group 4)

III Liga - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chełmianka Chełm	14	10	4	0	16	34
2	KSZO 1929	14	8	5	1	15	29
3	Wisłoka Dębica	14	8	2	4	5	26
4	Naprzód	14	7	3	4	3	24
5	Czarni Połaniec	14	7	3	4	2	24
6	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	6	3	5	6	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	3	20
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	6	2	6	1	20
9	Wisła Kraków II	14	5	4	5	-1	19
10	Jarosław	13	5	2	6	4	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Sokół Kolb.	14	3	7	4	-1	16
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	14	4	4	6	-3	16
14	Korona Kielce II	14	4	2	8	-5	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	-12	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	3	4	6	-7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	14	2	3	9	-11	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	2	2	9	-14	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Busko-Zdroj win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.