· Analysis updated 23:45 UTC
Korona Kielce II vs Czarni Połaniec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Korona Kielce II and 1.93 for Czarni Połaniec, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Czarni Połaniec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.
Model pick
Czarni Połaniec or Draw
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.4%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–35.2%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Czarni Połaniec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 36% / 22% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Korona Kielce II and 1.93 for Czarni Połaniec, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 71%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Model confidence
Czarni Połaniec or Draw is the headline pick at 64% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Korona Kielce II
Czarni Połaniec
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Wisłoka Dębica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | KSZO 1929 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Wisła Kraków II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Czarni Połaniec | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Naprzód | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Hetman Zamosc | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 9 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Busko-Zdroj | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | Moravia Morawica | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Jarosław | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | Sokół Kolb. | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Star Starachowice | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Korona Kielce II | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.