· Analysis updated 07:59 UTC
Korona Kielce II vs Moravia Morawica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.47 expected goals for Korona Kielce II and 1.56 for Moravia Morawica, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Korona Kielce II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Korona Kielce II win
57.7% probability
Expected goals
2.47 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Korona Kielce II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Moravia Morawica away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Korona Kielce II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 19% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.47 goals for Korona Kielce II and 1.56 for Moravia Morawica, a combined 4.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 3–17.0%
- 1–16.8%
- 2–26.6%
- 2–05.4%
Recent form
Korona Kielce II
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisłoka Dębica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokół Kolb. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jarosław · 2-6 (L)
Moravia Morawica
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Kraków II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Naprzód · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chełmianka Chełm · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 34 |
| 2 | KSZO 1929 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 29 |
| 3 | Wisłoka Dębica | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Naprzód | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 24 |
| 5 | Czarni Połaniec | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 24 |
| 6 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | Hetman Zamosc | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Wisła Kraków II | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Jarosław | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 11 | Star Starachowice | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Sokół Kolb. | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 13 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce II | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | Busko-Zdroj | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 14 |
| 16 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -11 | 9 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Korona Kielce II win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.