· Analysis updated 01:51 UTC
Korona Kielce II vs Naprzód Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.55 expected goals for Korona Kielce II and 2.60 for Naprzód, a combined total of 5.15. That distribution gives Naprzód the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 85% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
59.9% probability
Expected goals
2.55 – 2.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Korona Kielce II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Naprzód away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Naprzód to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 40% / 18% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.55 goals for Korona Kielce II and 2.60 for Naprzód, a combined 5.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.4%
- 2–35.5%
- 3–25.4%
- 1–25.0%
- 2–14.9%
Recent form
Korona Kielce II
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chełmianka Chełm · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Star Starachowice · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II · 1-0 (W)
Naprzód
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Jarosław · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Busko-Zdroj · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Czarni Połaniec · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hetman Zamosc · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KSZO 1929 · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 34 |
| 2 | KSZO 1929 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 29 |
| 3 | Wisłoka Dębica | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Naprzód | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 24 |
| 5 | Czarni Połaniec | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 24 |
| 6 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | Hetman Zamosc | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Wisła Kraków II | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Jarosław | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 11 | Star Starachowice | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Sokół Kolb. | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 13 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce II | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | Busko-Zdroj | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 14 |
| 16 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -9 | 13 |
| 17 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -12 | 11 |
| 18 | Moravia Morawica | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -11 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 59.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 85% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.