Korona Kielce II vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Korona Kielce II and 1.38 for Wiślanie Jaśkowice, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Korona Kielce II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Korona Kielce II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wiślanie Jaśkowice away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Korona Kielce II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 24% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Korona Kielce II and 1.38 for Wiślanie Jaśkowice, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Korona Kielce II win42%

Draw24%

Wiślanie Jaśkowice win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.3%
2–18.9%
1–08.2%
1–27.8%
0–17.2%

Recent form

Korona Kielce II

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chełmianka Chełm · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Star Starachowice · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II · 1-0 (W)

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

2026-10-23T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Star Starachowice · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisłoka Dębica · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chełmianka Chełm	14	10	4	0	16	34
2	KSZO 1929	14	8	5	1	15	29
3	Wisłoka Dębica	14	8	2	4	5	26
4	Naprzód	14	7	3	4	3	24
5	Czarni Połaniec	14	7	3	4	2	24
6	Hetman Zamosc	14	6	5	3	4	23
7	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	6	3	5	6	21
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	6	2	6	1	20
9	Wisła Kraków II	14	5	4	5	-1	19
10	Jarosław	14	5	2	7	3	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Sokół Kolb.	14	3	7	4	-1	16
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	14	4	4	6	-3	16
14	Korona Kielce II	14	4	2	8	-5	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	-12	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	14	3	4	7	-9	13
17	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	14	3	2	9	-12	11
18	Moravia Morawica	14	2	3	9	-11	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.