Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.20 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Korona Kielce the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Korona Kielce win

46.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Korona Kielce home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Motor Lublin away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Korona Kielce to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Korona Kielce and 1.20 for Motor Lublin, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Korona Kielce win46%

Draw25%

Motor Lublin win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.8%
1–09.8%
2–19.3%
2–07.7%
0–17.5%

Recent form

Korona Kielce

2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogon Szczecin · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Legia Warszawa · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Raków Częstochowa · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-15T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gornik Zabrze · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Slask Wroclaw · 2-1 (W)

Motor Lublin

2026-10-17T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Slask Wroclaw · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Gornik Zabrze · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Raków Częstochowa · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ekstraklasa table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gornik Zabrze	11	8	2	1	10	26
2	Lech Poznan	10	8	1	1	18	25
3	Legia Warszawa	11	6	5	0	13	23
4	Pogon Szczecin	10	6	3	1	9	21
5	GKS Katowice	11	6	0	5	6	18
6	Wisla Krakow	11	5	3	3	3	18
7	Zaglebie Lubin	11	5	3	3	0	18
8	Piast Gliwice	11	5	2	4	2	17
9	Korona Kielce	11	4	3	4	-5	15
10	Wisla Plock	10	4	2	4	-5	14
11	Cracovia Krakow	11	3	3	5	-3	12
12	Motor Lublin	11	3	3	5	-4	12
13	Jagiellonia	10	4	0	6	-4	12
14	Widzew Łódź	11	1	7	3	-1	10
15	Wieczysta Kraków	11	2	2	7	-5	8
16	Radomiak Radom	11	2	2	7	-15	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	11	1	3	7	-8	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	11	2	0	9	-11	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Korona Kielce win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.