Exbud Arena · Analysis updated 07:57 UTC
Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 0.92 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Korona Kielce the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Korona Kielce win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Korona Kielce home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Radomiak Radom away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.1%
- 2–010.7%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.9%
Recent form
Korona Kielce
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogon Szczecin · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Legia Warszawa · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Raków Częstochowa · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gornik Zabrze · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Slask Wroclaw · 2-1 (W)
Radomiak Radom
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Lech Poznan · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Piast Gliwice · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Widzew Łódź · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-13T17:00:00.000Z · Korona Kielce 2-0 Radomiak Radom (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · Korona Kielce 3-0 Radomiak Radom (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-03-30T10:15:00.000Z · Korona Kielce 1-3 Radomiak Radom (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · Korona Kielce 0-4 Radomiak Radom (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-06-26T09:00:00.000Z · Korona Kielce 0-3 Radomiak Radom (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-04-19T16:00:00.000Z · Korona Kielce 4-0 Radomiak Radom (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-10-22T10:30:00.000Z · Korona Kielce 1-1 Radomiak Radom (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-03-11T14:00:00.000Z · Korona Kielce 2-1 Radomiak Radom (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-08-27T10:30:00.000Z · Korona Kielce 2-0 Radomiak Radom (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-06-22T09:00:00.000Z · Korona Kielce 1-0 Radomiak Radom (Friendlies Clubs)
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 26 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Wisla Krakow | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 8 | Piast Gliwice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 15 |
| 10 | Wisla Plock | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Cracovia Krakow | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | Motor Lublin | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Jagiellonia | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Kraków | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Radomiak Radom | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 8 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Korona Kielce win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.