Exbud Arena · Referee Bartosz Frankowski, Poland · Analysis updated 08:02 UTC
Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.01 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.38 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Korona Kielce the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Korona Kielce win
52.2% probability
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Korona Kielce home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Korona Kielce to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.01 goals for Korona Kielce and 1.38 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 65%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–06.8%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Korona Kielce
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogon Szczecin · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Legia Warszawa · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Raków Częstochowa · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gornik Zabrze · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Slask Wroclaw · 2-1 (W)
Raków Częstochowa
- 2026-10-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wieczysta Kraków · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs GKS Katowice · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaglebie Lubin · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 26 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Wisla Krakow | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 8 | Piast Gliwice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 15 |
| 10 | Wisla Plock | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Cracovia Krakow | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | Motor Lublin | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Jagiellonia | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Kraków | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Radomiak Radom | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 8 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Korona Kielce win, at 52.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.