· Analysis updated 21:33 UTC
Korotan Prevalje vs Podvinci Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Korotan Prevalje and 1.33 for Podvinci, a combined total of 3.26. That distribution gives Korotan Prevalje the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Korotan Prevalje win
51.3% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Korotan Prevalje home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Podvinci away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Korotan Prevalje to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 22% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Korotan Prevalje and 1.33 for Podvinci, a combined 3.26 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.6%
Recent form
Korotan Prevalje
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fužinar · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Limbuš Pekre · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ljutomer · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Podvinci · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Čarda Martjanci · 1-1 (D)
Podvinci
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Čarda Martjanci · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ljutomer · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rače · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Šmartno · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Korotan Prevalje · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. SNL - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Odranci | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 20 |
| 2 | Šmartno | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Fužinar | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Ormoz | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 5 | Podvinci | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 6 | Hajdina | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Čarda Martjanci | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Korotan Prevalje | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Videm | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 10 | Rače | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Ljutomer | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Dobrovce | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 6 |
| 13 | Šampion Celje | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 4 |
| 14 | Limbuš Pekre | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Korotan Prevalje win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.