Korsnäs vs Helges Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Korsnäs and 1.30 for Helges, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Korsnäs the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Korsnäs win

56.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.14 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Korsnäs home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Helges away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Korsnäs to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 21% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Korsnäs and 1.30 for Helges, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Korsnäs win57%

Draw21%

Helges win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

2–19.5%
1–18.9%
2–07.3%
1–06.8%
3–16.8%

Recent form

Korsnäs

2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Falu BS · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunnersta · 1-7 (L)
2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Franke · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Viggbyholms IK · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lidingö · 0-3 (L)

Helges

2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Viggbyholms IK · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-13T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Lidingö · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Täby · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kungsängen · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Falu BS · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Division 2 - Norra Svealand table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Skiljebo	26	18	5	3	34	59
2	Enskede	26	17	4	5	19	55
3	Sunnersta	26	16	6	4	43	54
4	Angby	26	15	6	5	25	51
5	Falu BS	26	13	5	8	8	44
6	Täby	26	12	6	8	16	42
7	Franke	26	11	4	11	4	37
8	Gute	26	9	6	11	0	33
9	Bollstanäs	26	8	7	11	-4	31
10	Kungsängen	26	5	11	10	-9	26
11	Viggbyholms IK	26	7	4	15	-23	25
12	Lidingö	26	6	5	15	-27	23
13	Korsnäs	26	4	5	17	-36	17
14	Helges	26	2	4	20	-50	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Korsnäs win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.