Guldensporen Stadion · Referee W. De Cremer · Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Kortrijk vs Charleroi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.61 expected goals for Kortrijk and 2.17 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Charleroi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Charleroi win
73.3% probability
Expected goals
0.61 – 2.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kortrijk home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Charleroi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Charleroi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 9% / 18% / 73% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.61 goals for Kortrijk and 2.17 for Charleroi, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
27%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–214.6%
- 0–113.5%
- 0–310.6%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–18.2%
Recent form
Kortrijk
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Genk · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heist · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · H vs SK Beveren · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:15:00.000Z · A vs RAAL La Louvière · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 0-2 (L)
Charleroi
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Cercle Brugge · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Zulte Waregem · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Union St. Gilloise · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Kortrijk · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:15:00.000Z · H vs KV Mechelen · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | KVC Westerlo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | Zulte Waregem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Lommel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Charleroi win, at 73.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.