Guldensporen Stadion · Referee J. Vergoote · Analysis updated 15:33 UTC
Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Kortrijk and 2.13 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Zulte Waregem the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zulte Waregem win
71.6% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kortrijk home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zulte Waregem away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
28%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–214.1%
- 0–113.2%
- 0–310.0%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.6%
Recent form
Kortrijk
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heist · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · H vs SK Beveren · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:15:00.000Z · A vs RAAL La Louvière · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Anderlecht · 0-1 (L)
Zulte Waregem
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Anderlecht · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Charleroi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kortrijk · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:15:00.000Z · A vs KVC Westerlo · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · Kortrijk 0-2 Zulte Waregem (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-02-24T19:45:00.000Z · Kortrijk 3-3 Zulte Waregem (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2022-10-15T14:00:00.000Z · Kortrijk 1-3 Zulte Waregem (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2022-02-19T17:30:00.000Z · Kortrijk 5-0 Zulte Waregem (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2021-09-25T16:30:00.000Z · Kortrijk 2-2 Zulte Waregem (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2021-02-27T19:45:00.000Z · Kortrijk 1-2 Zulte Waregem (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2020-11-02T19:45:00.000Z · Kortrijk 1-1 Zulte Waregem (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2020-02-29T19:00:00.000Z · Kortrijk 2-2 Zulte Waregem (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2019-10-19T18:00:00.000Z · Kortrijk 2-0 Zulte Waregem (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2018-12-26T13:30:00.000Z · Kortrijk 4-2 Zulte Waregem (Jupiler Pro League)
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | KVC Westerlo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | Zulte Waregem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Lommel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zulte Waregem win, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.