Kosmonosy vs Spartak Police n/Metují Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.97 expected goals for Kosmonosy and 1.64 for Spartak Police n/Metují, a combined total of 4.61. That distribution gives Kosmonosy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kosmonosy win

64.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.97 – 1.64

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kosmonosy home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Police n/Metují away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kosmonosy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 16% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.97 goals for Kosmonosy and 1.64 for Spartak Police n/Metují, a combined 4.61 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kosmonosy win65%

Draw16%

Spartak Police n/Metují win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

35%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals67%

Both teams to score76%

Correct score

2–17.2%
3–17.1%
2–25.9%
3–25.8%
4–15.3%

Recent form

Kosmonosy

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Hradec Králové · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Letohrad · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Chrudim II · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Turnov · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Police n/Metují · 4-1 (W)

Spartak Police n/Metují

2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Letohrad · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chrudim II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Turnov · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolín · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kosmonosy · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

4. liga - Divizie C table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vysoké Mýto	12	9	3	0	18	30
2	Kosmonosy	12	9	1	2	20	28
3	Přepeře	12	9	0	3	20	27
4	Trutnov	12	8	1	3	10	25
5	Turnov	12	7	2	3	12	23
6	Ústí nad Orlicí	12	6	3	3	10	21
7	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	12	6	3	3	6	21
8	Spartak Police n/Metují	12	6	1	5	5	19
9	Kolín	12	4	3	5	1	15
10	Slavia Hradec Králové	12	4	2	6	-4	14
11	Dvůr Králové	12	4	2	6	-9	14
12	Hlinsko	12	4	1	7	-6	13
13	Vykan	12	3	2	7	-4	11
14	Svitavy	12	1	2	9	-20	5
15	Letohrad	12	1	2	9	-24	5
16	Chrudim II	12	0	2	10	-35	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kosmonosy win, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.