Kostinbrod vs Balkan Botevgrad Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Kostinbrod and 0.80 for Balkan Botevgrad, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Kostinbrod the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kostinbrod win

51.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kostinbrod home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Balkan Botevgrad away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kostinbrod to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 27% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Kostinbrod and 0.80 for Balkan Botevgrad, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Kostinbrod win51%

Draw27%

Balkan Botevgrad win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–015.5%
1–112.4%
0–011.1%
2–010.9%
0–18.9%

Recent form

Kostinbrod

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia III · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Balkan Botevgrad · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Belasitsa · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slivnishki geroy · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Sofia II · 1-3 (L)

Balkan Botevgrad

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Fratria · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kostinbrod · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slivnishki geroy · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia II · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Minyor Pernik	12	9	2	1	21	29
2	Oborishte	11	6	4	1	11	22
3	Bansko	10	7	1	2	8	22
4	Strumska Slava	10	6	1	3	8	19
5	Septemvri Sofia II	11	6	1	4	2	19
6	Balkan Botevgrad	12	6	1	5	-1	19
7	Kostinbrod	11	6	0	5	6	18
8	Slivnishki geroy	12	5	2	5	-1	17
9	Slavia Sofia II	11	5	0	6	2	15
10	CSKA Sofia III	11	3	6	2	2	15
11	Botev Ihtiman	10	5	0	5	1	15
12	Septemvri Simitli	11	3	4	4	-4	13
13	Chavdar Etropole	12	4	1	7	-15	13
14	Levski Sofia II	11	3	3	5	-2	12
15	Belasitsa	12	3	2	7	-6	11
16	Kyustendil	10	2	3	5	-6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	1	4	6	-8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	12	2	1	9	-18	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kostinbrod win, at 51.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.