· Analysis updated 13:29 UTC
Kostinbrod vs Bansko Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Kostinbrod and 1.30 for Bansko, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Kostinbrod the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kostinbrod home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bansko away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kostinbrod to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 25% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Kostinbrod and 1.30 for Bansko, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Kostinbrod
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia III · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Balkan Botevgrad · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Belasitsa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slivnishki geroy · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Sofia II · 1-3 (L)
Bansko
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyustendil · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Simitli · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Strumska Slava · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oborishte · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Belasitsa · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Oborishte | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Bansko | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Strumska Slava | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia II | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 6 | Balkan Botevgrad | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 7 | Kostinbrod | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Botev Ihtiman | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Slivnishki geroy | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | Septemvri Simitli | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Slavia Sofia II | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| 12 | CSKA Sofia III | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 | Levski Sofia II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Belasitsa | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 | Chavdar Etropole | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 10 |
| 16 | Kyustendil | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.