Futbalový štadión Kostolné Kračany · Referee I. Valent · Analysis updated 09:04 UTC
Kostolné Kračany vs Ružomberok Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Kostolné Kračany and 3.20 for Ružomberok, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Ružomberok the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ružomberok win
74.4% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 3.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kostolné Kračany home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ružomberok away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ružomberok to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 12% / 14% / 74% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Kostolné Kračany and 3.20 for Ružomberok, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
26%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.9%
- 1–27.4%
- 1–46.3%
- 0–36.1%
- 0–25.7%
Recent form
Kostolné Kračany
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jelka · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-07-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jelka · 0-0 (D)
- 2024-10-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ružomberok · 0-3 (L)
- 2024-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Gabčíkovo · 1-0 (W)
- 2024-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nový Život · 2-0 (W)
Ružomberok
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunajska Streda · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Komárno · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Myjava · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Žilina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Opava · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ružomberok win, at 74.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.