Futbalový štadión Kostolné Kračany · Analysis updated 23:53 UTC
Kostolné Kračany vs Veľký Meder Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Kostolné Kračany and 1.08 for Veľký Meder, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Kostolné Kračany the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.4% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kostolné Kračany home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Veľký Meder away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kostolné Kračany to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 27% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Kostolné Kračany and 1.08 for Veľký Meder, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–08.3%
Recent form
Kostolné Kračany
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jelka · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-07-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jelka · 0-0 (D)
- 2024-10-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ružomberok · 0-3 (L)
- 2024-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Gabčíkovo · 1-0 (W)
- 2024-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nový Život · 2-0 (W)
Veľký Meder
- 2022-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skalica · 0-3 (L)
- 2022-08-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Malženice · 2-1 (W)
- 2022-07-31T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kostolné Kračany · 1-0 (W)
- 2021-08-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Trencin · 0-3 (L)
- 2021-08-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jarovce Bratislava · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2022-07-31T15:00:00.000Z · Kostolné Kračany 0-1 Veľký Meder (Cup)
- 2020-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · Kostolné Kračany 3-0 Veľký Meder (Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.