· Analysis updated 07:16 UTC
Kotwica Kórnik vs Bałtyk Koszalin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Kotwica Kórnik and 2.01 for Bałtyk Koszalin, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives Bałtyk Koszalin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bałtyk Koszalin win
51.6% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 2.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kotwica Kórnik home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bałtyk Koszalin away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bałtyk Koszalin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 27% / 22% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Kotwica Kórnik and 2.01 for Bałtyk Koszalin, a combined 3.41 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–19.3%
- 0–26.7%
- 0–16.6%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Kotwica Kórnik
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Unia Swarzędz · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Grom Nowy Staw · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gedania Gdansk · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lipno Stęszew · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stargard Szczeciński · 4-2 (W)
Bałtyk Koszalin
- 2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Grom Nowy Staw · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gedania Gdansk · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lipno Stęszew · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stargard Szczeciński · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemik Bydgoszcz · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 33 |
| 2 | Luzino | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 28 |
| 3 | Wda Świecie | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 24 |
| 4 | Kluczevia Stargard | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Stargard Szczeciński | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Lech Poznań II | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
| 8 | Noteć Czarnków | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | Kalisz | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 17 |
| 10 | Grom Nowy Staw | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 16 |
| 11 | Elana Toruń | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | Unia Swarzędz | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 13 | Gedania Gdansk | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Flota Świnoujście | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 14 |
| 15 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 16 | Victoria Września | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | Lipno Stęszew | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 11 |
| 18 | Kotwica Kórnik | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bałtyk Koszalin win, at 51.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.