Sham Shui Po Sports Ground · Analysis updated 04:12 UTC
Kowloon City vs Hong Kong FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.34 expected goals for Kowloon City and 0.96 for Hong Kong FC, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Kowloon City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws roughly 32% of the time.
Model pick
Kowloon City to Win
68.1% probability
Expected goals
2.34 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–18.3%
- 3–07.9%
Why the model likes this
Kowloon City home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kowloon City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 18% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.34 goals for Kowloon City and 0.96 for Hong Kong FC, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Kowloon City
- 2026-05-16T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Hong Kong FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs BC Rangers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-26T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Southern District · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-19T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastern District · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-12T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Southern District · 2-1 (W)
Hong Kong FC
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T07:00:00.000Z · Kowloon City 1-1 Hong Kong FC (Premier League)
- 2025-12-14T08:30:00.000Z · Kowloon City 1-0 Hong Kong FC (Premier League)
- 2025-10-26T07:00:00.000Z · Kowloon City 1-2 Hong Kong FC (Premier League)
- 2025-05-25T07:00:00.000Z · Kowloon City 5-3 Hong Kong FC (Premier League)
- 2025-01-19T08:30:00.000Z · Kowloon City 0-0 Hong Kong FC (Premier League)
- 2024-09-29T08:30:00.000Z · Kowloon City 2-0 Hong Kong FC (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitchee | 18 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 50 |
| 2 | Warriors | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 28 | 36 |
| 3 | North District | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 31 |
| 4 | Wofoo Tai Po | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 31 |
| 5 | Eastern | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 25 |
| 6 | Kowloon City | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | -11 | 21 |
| 7 | Eastern District | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 19 |
| 8 | Southern District | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -10 | 18 |
| 9 | BC Rangers | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -18 | 17 |
| 10 | Hong Kong FC | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | -41 | 4 |
| 1 | Kitchee | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 52 |
| 2 | Wofoo Tai Po | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 43 |
| 3 | Warriors | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 31 | 42 |
| 4 | North District | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 32 |
| 5 | Eastern | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 32 |
| 1 | Kowloon City | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -11 | 28 |
| 2 | Southern District | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 25 |
| 3 | Eastern District | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -2 | 21 |
| 4 | BC Rangers | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -18 | 21 |
| 5 | Hong Kong FC | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | -42 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.