De Zwaaier · Analysis updated 04:19 UTC
Kozakken Boys vs Spakenburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Kozakken Boys and 1.35 for Spakenburg, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Kozakken Boys the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kozakken Boys win
61.6% probability
Expected goals
2.45 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kozakken Boys home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spakenburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 3–17.4%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–06.7%
- 2–26.1%
Recent form
Kozakken Boys
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Barendrecht · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Hoek · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Spakenburg · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Katwijk · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Koninklijke HFC · 1-1 (D)
Spakenburg
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ijsselmeervogels · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Quick Boys · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozakken Boys · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Amsterdam · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs De Treffers · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-21T14:00:00.000Z · Kozakken Boys 4-3 Spakenburg (Tweede Divisie)
- 2025-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · Kozakken Boys 1-2 Spakenburg (Tweede Divisie)
- 2024-04-13T13:00:00.000Z · Kozakken Boys 0-3 Spakenburg (Tweede Divisie)
- 2023-11-11T14:00:00.000Z · Kozakken Boys 1-3 Spakenburg (Tweede Divisie)
- 2023-01-28T14:00:00.000Z · Kozakken Boys 1-1 Spakenburg (Tweede Divisie)
- 2022-09-03T13:00:00.000Z · Kozakken Boys 5-5 Spakenburg (Tweede Divisie)
- 2022-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · Kozakken Boys 1-3 Spakenburg (Tweede Divisie)
- 2021-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · Kozakken Boys 3-3 Spakenburg (Tweede Divisie)
- 2020-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · Kozakken Boys 2-2 Spakenburg (Tweede Divisie)
Tweede Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quick Boys | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 28 |
| 2 | De Treffers | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | Ijsselmeervogels | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Kozakken Boys | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | HHC | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Barendrecht | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | GVVV Veenendaal | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | RKAV Volendam | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 9 | Spakenburg | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 10 | Katwijk | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam II | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 12 | Almere City II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | AFC Amsterdam | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 13 |
| 15 | Hoek | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Koninklijke HFC | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 17 | Kloetinge | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 | ROHDA Raalte | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -24 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kozakken Boys win, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.