De Zwaaier · Analysis updated 03:05 UTC
Kozakken Boys vs Utrecht Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.46 expected goals for Kozakken Boys and 1.22 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Kozakken Boys the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Kozakken Boys win
64.6% probability
Expected goals
2.46 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kozakken Boys home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Utrecht away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kozakken Boys to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 18% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.46 goals for Kozakken Boys and 1.22 for Utrecht, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 3–17.6%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–17.6%
- 3–06.3%
Recent form
Kozakken Boys
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Barendrecht · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Hoek · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Spakenburg · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Katwijk · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Koninklijke HFC · 1-1 (D)
Utrecht
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kozakken Boys win, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.