Kozara Gradiška vs BSK Banja Luka Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Kozara Gradiška and 1.40 for BSK Banja Luka, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives BSK Banja Luka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

BSK Banja Luka win

46.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kozara Gradiška home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BSK Banja Luka away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BSK Banja Luka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 27% / 27% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Kozara Gradiška and 1.40 for BSK Banja Luka, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Kozara Gradiška win27%

Draw27%

BSK Banja Luka win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

0–112.7%
1–112.7%
0–09.1%
1–09.1%
0–28.9%

Recent form

Kozara Gradiška

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutjeska Foča · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavija · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Velež Nevesinje · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Leotar · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Romanija Pale · 3-0 (W)

BSK Banja Luka

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Bijeljina · 4-4 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Siroki Brijeg · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Čelik · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Zrinjski · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-29T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Sloga Doboj · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1st League - RS table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Leotar	13	10	3	0	26	33
2	Laktaši	13	10	1	2	29	31
3	Drina Zvornik	13	6	3	4	14	21
4	Potkozarje	12	6	2	4	2	20
5	FK Majevica Lopare	12	5	4	3	6	19
6	Kozara Gradiška	13	5	4	4	1	19
7	FK Romanija Pale	13	6	0	7	-6	18
8	Famos Vojkovići	12	5	1	6	-5	16
9	Rudar Prijedor	12	4	3	5	-4	15
10	Slavija	13	3	6	4	-5	15
11	Sutjeska Foča	12	3	2	7	-9	11
12	Velež Nevesinje	13	3	2	8	-23	11
13	Omarska	12	2	3	7	-11	9
14	Zvijezda 09	13	2	2	9	-15	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is BSK Banja Luka win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.