· Analysis updated 14:11 UTC
Kozara Gradiška vs Velež Nevesinje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Kozara Gradiška and 0.60 for Velež Nevesinje, a combined total of 1.99. That distribution gives Kozara Gradiška the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kozara Gradiška win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kozara Gradiška home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Velež Nevesinje away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kozara Gradiška to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 28% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Kozara Gradiška and 0.60 for Velež Nevesinje, a combined 1.99 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.0%
- 0–013.7%
- 2–013.2%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–18.2%
Recent form
Kozara Gradiška
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutjeska Foča · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavija · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Velež Nevesinje · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Leotar · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Romanija Pale · 3-0 (W)
Velež Nevesinje
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Laktaši · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-10-21T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Leotar · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Romanija Pale · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Majevica Lopare · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Potkozarje · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st League - RS table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leotar | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | Laktaši | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 3 | Drina Zvornik | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | FK Majevica Lopare | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Kozara Gradiška | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Potkozarje | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | FK Romanija Pale | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 12 |
| 8 | Rudar Prijedor | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 9 | Velež Nevesinje | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 11 |
| 10 | Famos Vojkovići | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Slavija | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Sutjeska Foča | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Omarska | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
| 14 | Zvijezda 09 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kozara Gradiška win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.