· Analysis updated 10:10 UTC
Kozara Gradiška vs Zvijezda 09 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Kozara Gradiška and 0.68 for Zvijezda 09, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Kozara Gradiška the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kozara Gradiška win
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kozara Gradiška home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zvijezda 09 away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.5%
- 2–013.7%
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–08.7%
Recent form
Kozara Gradiška
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zvijezda 09 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Laktaši · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Omarska · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudar Prijedor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Drina Zvornik · 0-1 (L)
Zvijezda 09
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozara Gradiška · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Omarska · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudar Prijedor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Drina Zvornik · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutjeska Foča · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-11-09T12:00:00.000Z · Kozara Gradiška 3-0 Zvijezda 09 (1st League - RS)
- 2025-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · Kozara Gradiška 1-1 Zvijezda 09 (1st League - RS)
- 2025-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · Kozara Gradiška 2-2 Zvijezda 09 (1st League - RS)
- 2024-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · Kozara Gradiška 0-1 Zvijezda 09 (1st League - RS)
- 2023-03-18T13:30:00.000Z · Kozara Gradiška 0-3 Zvijezda 09 (1st League - RS)
- 2022-08-13T15:30:00.000Z · Kozara Gradiška 1-1 Zvijezda 09 (1st League - RS)
- 2022-04-16T14:00:00.000Z · Kozara Gradiška 0-1 Zvijezda 09 (1st League - RS)
- 2021-10-02T13:30:00.000Z · Kozara Gradiška 1-1 Zvijezda 09 (1st League - RS)
- 2021-03-06T13:00:00.000Z · Kozara Gradiška 1-2 Zvijezda 09 (1st League - RS)
- 2020-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · Kozara Gradiška 4-0 Zvijezda 09 (1st League - RS)
1st League - RS table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leotar | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 33 |
| 2 | Laktaši | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 31 |
| 3 | Drina Zvornik | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Potkozarje | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 5 | FK Majevica Lopare | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Kozara Gradiška | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | Rudar Prijedor | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 18 |
| 8 | FK Romanija Pale | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -6 | 18 |
| 9 | Famos Vojkovići | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 17 |
| 10 | Slavija | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 15 |
| 11 | Sutjeska Foča | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 11 |
| 12 | Velež Nevesinje | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -23 | 11 |
| 13 | Omarska | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 14 | Zvijezda 09 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -15 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kozara Gradiška win, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.