Kozármislenyi Stadion · Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
Kozarmisleny FC vs Karcag SE Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Kozarmisleny FC and 0.85 for Karcag SE, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Kozarmisleny FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kozarmisleny FC win
49.2% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Karcag SE away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kozarmisleny FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 28% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Kozarmisleny FC and 0.85 for Karcag SE, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–010.8%
- 2–010.2%
- 0–19.2%
Recent form
Kozarmisleny FC
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Karcag SE · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mátészalka · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mezokovesd-zsory · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Kecskeméti TE · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Szeged 2011 · 1-2 (L)
Karcag SE
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kozarmisleny FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gyori ETO FC · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyirmot SE · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Fehérvár FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs BVSC · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB II table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Soroksar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 2 | Kecskeméti TE | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Tiszakecske FC | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Kazincbarcikai | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Gyirmot SE | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Ajka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Mezokovesd-zsory | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Fehérvár FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Karcag SE | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Szentlőrinc SE | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Diosgyori VTK | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | Nagykanizsai ULE | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | BVSC | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Szeged 2011 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Csakvar | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 4 |
| 16 | Kozarmisleny FC | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kozarmisleny FC win, at 49.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.